Donald Trump Takes Betting Market Lead Over Kamala Harris Following RFK Jr.s' Exit

Bibhu Pattnaik

August 24, 2024

Donald Trump has moved ahead of Kamala Harris in the online betting markets following the suspension of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign.

What Happened: Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, now indicates a 51% probability of Trump winning the election. Harris’ chances have dipped to 48%.

According to the data, this change in odds is a direct consequence of Kennedy suspending his campaign.

Polymarket, a crypto-based platform that enables users to wager on any outcome, has recorded over $705 million in bets on the election so far.

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In the previous month, Harris assumed the role of the Democratic nominee after Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Before Biden quit the race, Polymarket users predicted a 60% chance of Biden retaining his presidency.

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Why It Matters: The suspension of Kennedy’s campaign has significantly altered the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race. As an independent candidate, Kennedy had the potential to split the Democratic vote, which could have favored Trump. With his exit, the race has become more direct, and the shift in betting odds reflects this change.

The fact that Harris took over as the Democratic nominee from Biden, who had a strong chance of retaining his presidency, adds another layer of complexity to the race.

The final outcome will undoubtedly hinge on various factors, including the candidates’ campaign strategies and public sentiment in the lead-up to the election.

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