StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) shares are trading lower on Friday after the company reported third-quarter losses of $4.27 per share on Thursday, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $3.08 per share.
Quarterly revenue clocked in at $468 million, beating the consensus estimate of $451.8 million.
Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, lowering the price forecast from $25 to $19.
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Analyst’s Take
The analyst highlights the fact that StubHub offered no specific fourth-quarter guidance and noted several timing issues that may affect results. He says some major tour sales happened earlier in late September, likely boosting third-quarter GMS.
He adds that fourth-quarter 2024 saw an unusual cluster of major on-sales, while this year shows shifts in on-sale timing.
Post says the 2026 concert season could strengthen, citing Live Nation's comments about "a great (2026) pipeline," but he has less confidence in fourth-quarter estimates and 2026 GMS growth.
Post writes that the team is modestly trimming fourth-quarter estimates, now modeling GMS down 2% because of tough comparisons and continued pricing pressure, which should ease after May.
He says they are also lowering out-year expectations for direct issuance sales and advertising revenue, arguing that a more cautious stance is appropriate until visibility improves.
Road Ahead
Post now forecasts 2026 GMS and revenue at $12.7 billion and $2.5 billion, down from $13.3 billion and $2.8 billion, and cuts the 2026 EBITDA outlook to $710 million from $989 million.
Post writes that concerns about 2026 GMS acceleration remain elevated, and he had hoped for clearer growth visibility heading into the year. Instead, he says the update created more near-term uncertainty.
The analyst notes that StubHub plans to give full-year 2026 guidance on its fourth-quarter call, but he expects the overhang on 2026 estimates to persist.
Post says potential catalysts include 2026 concert on-sale announcements, direct-issuance partnerships, and the fourth-quarter sponsored product ad launch.
He adds that risks include new U.S. ticketing rules and possible selling pressure tied to the first-quarter lock-up expiration.
STUB Price Action: Stubhub Holdings shares were down 21.68% at $14.74 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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