In a surprising turn of events, Donald Trump has taken the lead in a recent national poll, even as Vice President Kamala Harris continues to gain popularity.
What Happened: A recent poll conducted by RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute shows Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of one percentage point. The poll, conducted between August 12 and 14, indicates that 46% of likely voters are in favor of Trump, while 45% support Harris.
This development comes in the wake of a substantial shift in the polls after President Joe Biden‘s decision to withdraw from the race on July 21 and endorse Harris. Harris has since experienced a surge in the polls, surpassing Trump in many national and some swing state polls.
Despite this, Trump has consistently downplayed the polling results, asserting last week that he is “leading by a lot.” He also drew parallels to the 2016 election, where he secured victory in the Electoral College despite lagging in many polls.
While Trump leads in this particular poll, most recent polling data still places Harris in the lead. The current polling average by FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a lead of approximately 2.7 points. Similarly, Nate Silver‘s Silver Bulletin shows Harris leading by 2.8 percent.
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Trump Vs Harris: A Tight Race In Pennsylvania’s Latest Poll
In another poll, conducted by Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania, Trump is marginally leading Harris in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. This survey was released on Friday.
The poll shows Trump ahead of Harris by 1 point, 49% to 48%, among likely voters. When undecided voters were pushed to make a choice, Trump’s lead increased to 2 points, 51% to 49%. However, Trump’s lead is within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
When third-party candidates were included, Trump and Harris tied at 47% each, while independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 3%. The poll underscores the intense competition for Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
Both candidates received nearly equal support from their respective parties, with approximately 91% of registered Republicans and Democrats supporting their party’s candidate. Trump, however, had a slight edge among independent voters and a significant lead among voters aged 50 to 69.
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Harris demonstrated her strength among young voters and union members, leading 61% to 36% among those under 40, and 57% to 42% among union members. The candidates were evenly matched among voters in their 40s.
Why It Matters: The fluctuating poll numbers underscore the volatility and unpredictability of the political landscape. The recent poll results indicate a close race, with both candidates having strong support bases.
The impact of Biden’s endorsement of Harris and Trump’s continued influence on his supporters are key factors that could shape the final outcome of the race. The role of the Electoral College system also adds an additional layer of complexity to the election process.
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This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
