Trump In Trouble: Vice President Harris Leads Betting Odds For 2024 Election, Here's How Swing State Odds Look

Chris Katje

August 26, 2024

A head-to-head matchup between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris continues to be fairly even with less than three months until the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Harris has been posting a lead in most 2024 election polls, while Trump has seen his odds with prediction markets remain ahead of the vice president for the odds to win the 2024 election.

The betting odds are near even between the two candidates at Bet365, as reported by Covers. Harris has the slight edge at odds of -120 with Trump ranking close behind at +100 as of Aug. 26.

On Friday, the two candidates appeared even in the betting odds, which came ahead of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign to help Trump.

Trump was listed ahead of Harris at odds of -125 to her +100 earlier this month.

Based on the latest betting odds, Harris has an implied chance of 54.6% to win the 2024 election with Trump having a 50% chance of winning.

Ranking behind the two leading candidates are J.D. Vance at +8,000 and Nikki Haley and Michelle Obama both at +10,000. Kennedy Jr., who will remain on the ballot in select states, has odds of +15,000 to win the election.

Trump hit odds of -250 back in July after an assassination attempt. At that time, President Joe Biden was still in the race and had odds of +500, followed by Harris at +800.

In June, Trump had odds of -175 after the first presidential debate, followed by Harris at +400 and Biden at +800 as talk of his exit began gaining steam.

The current odds are most similar to the month of May, which saw Trump as a -110 favorite and Biden closely behind at +130.

Keep in mind that back in January 2021, it was Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of +350 based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.

Prediction market Polymarket, which calls itself the world’s largest prediction market, offers betting on items in categories such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and more.

On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) via the Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC) network, or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). In each betting market, the winning option pays out at $1.

One of the largest prediction markets on the site is the 2024 election winner with over $739 million wagered. Trump is the slight favorite on Polymarket at 50% followed by Harris at 49%. Trump had a larger lead in recent weeks before Harris again closed the gap.

Similar to sportsbooks, the prediction market shows a near toss-up between the two candidates.

Did You Know?

Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool

Why It's Important: Along with Harris improving the odds of the Democratic Party winning the 2024 election since Biden dropped out based on election polls, the vice president has also improved the chances of winning swing states.

A recent Morning Consult poll showed Harris with a four-point lead over Trump among nationally registered voters. A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll of voters in seven key swing states showed Harris with an overall lead of 48% to 47%. Harris is leading Trump in five of the seven states, tied in one, and trails Trump in one.

These seven swing states represent 93 electoral votes collectively and could decide the 2024 election. Six of the seven swing states were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with five slipping from Trump’s win in 2016.

Odds from Bet365 show the following odds for the two candidates to win six of the swing states:

Pennsylvania: Harris -125, Trump -110

Michigan: Harris -225, Trump +162

North Carolina: Harris +137, Trump -188

Wisconsin: Harris -175, Trump +125

Georgia: Harris +137, Trump -188

Arizona: Harris -110, Trump -125

Harris is the betting favorite in four of the six swing states tracked, with Trump having better odds to win North Carolina and Georgia. Biden won five of the six states above in the 2020 election with Trump winning North Carolina.

On Polymarket, the Democratic Party is favored to win Michigan and Wisconsin with Trump's Republican Party favored to win Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona.

Check This Out:

Lawmakers Made Huge Investments This Year. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool

Photo: Andrew Angelov via Shutterstock

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