Altucher: Forget Bitcoin - This Will Be So Much Bigger

Bitcoin is surging - and Trump's new crypto policies are igniting what James Altucher calls "The Great Gain." With key states like New Hampshire creating crypto reserves, a massive altcoin rally could be next. A $900 stake today could explode.

2024 Election Odds On Polymarket, Kalshi Show Trump Will Win: Why They Might Be Wrong

Hayden Buckfire
October 31, 2024

As the 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump draws nearer, observers are looking for any clue to the ultimate winner. While polls have traditionally been the method of choice to forecast elections, polling misses in the 2016 and 2020 elections have led many to look toward alternatives.

Political betting markets, now legal in the United States, are widely discussed as another possible predictor of event outcomes. How accurate are they?

What Are Betting Markets? The premise of online prediction markets is simple: investors buy and sell futures on current event outcomes rather than on a physical asset. The most prominent prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, use cryptocurrency as a trading currency.

Thus, a trader profits if the event’s outcome resolves to their bet.

Kalshi — and now Robinhood — allow users in the U.S. to bet on the site; Polymarket is restricted solely to international users.

The 2024 Election: The Harris-Trump matchup could be the closest election in decades. Polling shows razor-thin margins in all seven swing states, though Trump has some momentum.

Polymarket bettors are more bullish on Trump. As of Oct. 30, Trump’s odds of winning on the site are 66.6% to Harris’ 33.4%. Trump’s odds have shifted by 17.6% in the last month, moving the race from “Toss-Up” status to “Lean Trump” by this metric.

This is a much higher margin for the GOP than what’s seen in polling counterparts.

Election forecaster 538 is more reserved in its confidence. The polling-aggregated model gives Trump a 52.5% chance of winning, up from 43% last month. While this may seem like a large swing, the election remains an effective toss-up.

Are They Accurate? Theoretically, betting markets, like any market, aren’t perfect.

“Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits,” Polymarket’s website reads. “Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.

“This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities,” the website insists.

In practice, the answer is murkier.

For one, Polymarket’s user base is likely somewhat homogenized. Twice as many men invest in cryptocurrency as women, according to CNBC. Additionally, the exchange has seemingly spent significant capital advertising on X. Polymarket has over 400,000 followers on Elon Musk‘s platform and just 80,000 on Instagram.

Polls have recognized a gender support gap in the election: women are much more likely to support Harris, while men are likelier to support Trump. The X user base has swung to the right since Musk acquired the platform in 2022.

Homogenous participants are more likely to engage in herd behavior, making similar decisions, amplifying trends and causing asset bubbles or crashes. Efficiency in markets relies on diversity among participants because varied perspectives and approaches lead to more dynamic and accurate asset pricing.

It is worth noting that pollsters can also be prone to such behavior, dubbed “herding,” according to election forecaster Nate Silver.

“There are too many polls in the swing states that show the race exactly Harris +1, TIE, Trump +1. Should be more variance than that,” Silver posted on X. “Everyone’s herding (or everyone but NYT/Siena).”

Additionally, the calculated market odds are susceptible to wild swings from “whale” bettors. One individual on Polymarket has possibly spent as much as $43 million for Trump to win.

Does This Even Matter? Regardless of whether betting markets are tracking a true, major shift in presidential odds, voting is the only determinant of an electoral outcome.

Also Read:

  • Trump Vs. Musk: DJT Stock Worth More Than Latest X Valuation Thanks To 2024 Election Run-Up

Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Continue Reading...

Popular

Man Says Girlfriend Ran Off With $3.6 Million Lottery Winnings After He Bought the Ticket

A Canadian man has taken legal action against his girlfriend who allegedly vanished after winning a lottery of $3.6 million, leaving him stranded.

Putting Your Name on This List Could Hand You $1,270 on Friday - Ad

URGENT: On Tuesday, a simple set of instructions will be sent out to an elite group of investors. The folks in this group will have the opportunity to place a 10-minute trade that could double their money by Friday. Consider this your invitation to join them. The next trade is just days away.

Trump meets with the Federal Reserve chairman he has repeatedly scorned

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump met with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday and the two discussed the economy but not Powell's outlook for interest rates, the Fed said.

A little bit of farm, a little bit of suburbia: That's the recipe for Agritopia

GILBERT, Ariz. (AP) — Just steps from the porticos, patios, clay-tiled roofs and manicured lawns of suburbia, Kelly Saxer has gotten used to questions. As she weaves through tomato vines, snaps asparagus and generally gets her hands dirty, visitors and even some nearby residents want to know what she’s doing — and how the farm where she works wound up here.

Elon Musk Confirms: Tesla's Optimus is Replacing Workers... and Heading to Mars - Ad

Elon Musk just confirmed Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, will head to Mars in 2026 aboard Starship to assist with autonomous colonization. Mass production starts in 2025, scaling to 500,000 robots yearly-what could become the decade's biggest AI wealth creation story.

Taylor Swift Reclaims Ownership Of Her First 6 Albums From Scooter Braun: 'All Of The Music I've Ever Made Now Belongs To Me'

Taylor Swift has reclaimed ownership of her first six albums, ending a long-running battle with Scooter Braun and marking a major victory for artist control and creative independence.

Trump's Tariffs In Court, Summers' Stark Warning, US-China Stalemate, And Wood's Reaganomics Comparison: This Week In Economics

A federal judge blocked Trump's emergency tariff powers as economic tensions escalated, with Larry Summers warning of a looming fiscal crisis, Japan unveiling stimulus to counter U.S. tariffs, U.S.-China trade talks stalling, and Cathie Wood likening Trump's policies to "Reaganomics on steroids."

The Best $19 You've Ever Spent - Ad

Discover a conservative options strategy almost anyone can use. This new research service reveals how to trade the same stocks repeatedly to build steady income for retirement. Access it now for just $19-the lowest price ever offered, but only for a limited time.

Bulgaria is close to joining the euro currency but faces disinformation and fear

SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) — Bulgaria is close to realizing its decades-old goal of joining the euro currency union and deepening ties with the more prosperous countries of Western Europe. But faces a populist backlash against the shared currency on the eve of a key decision by European Union authorities.

Analysis: An outline is emerging of the US offer to Iran in their high-stakes nuclear negotiations

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The outline of the U.S. offer to Iran in is starting to become clearer — but whether any deal is on the horizon remains as cloudy as ever.

Elon's Backup Plan for AI - Ad

Elon Musk just poured $51M into the "Quantum Power Grid" - a next-gen system built to fix AI's fatal flaw: energy. Today's AI models need 10,000x more power than older tech. This grid uses advanced metals to transfer energy faster, cleaner, and with near-zero resistance. Chris Rowe explains.

Michael Saylor Called Scaramucci From a Yacht and It Changed the Ending of His Book

Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, shared his journey into the world of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) that started during his brief stint at the White House. His interest in cryptocurrency has since led him to become a significant player in the digital currency space.

Is Elon's Empire Crumbling? - Ad

Jeff Brown - the legend who called Tesla and Nvidia early - says Elon is about to launch a $25T AI revolution. This isn't another chatbot. It's real-world AI that could 14X the impact of ChatGPT. But after July 23rd, it may be too late.

Billionaires Are Piling Into A Special Gold Investment - Ad

With record gold prices, everyday Americans are scrambling to buy gold coins and bars. But some savvy investors have used a different way to profit from gold bull runs - a special investment with a long history of making up to a surprising 1,000 times more than physical gold.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Continues To Offload Tesla As Elon Musk Moves On From Trump Administration

Ark Invest made significant trades in TSLA, TXG, NTLA, DDD, and ADPT. Purchase of TXG and NTLA from ARKG and ARKK funds, and sale of TSLA, DDD, and ADPT from various funds.

Apple's Liquid Glass Interface Set To Revolutionize iOS 26, Hints At 20th Anniversary iPhone

Apple is poised to unveil a groundbreaking software design, dubbed "Liquid Glass," at its upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference.

The Crypto That Benefits Most From Trump's Financial Vision - Ad

One specific coin aligns perfectly with Trump's regulatory reforms and vision for America's financial dominance in the digital age. The best part? This platform is already processing more transactions than all its competitors combined, yet remarkably remains under most investors' radar.

Ground beef sold at Whole Foods may be tainted with E. coli, USDA says

U.S. agriculture officials are warning that ground beef sold at Whole Foods markets nationwide may be contaminated with potentially dangerous E. coli bacteria.

Former Zillow Execs Target $1.3T Market - Ad

One co-founded Zillow. The other sold his company to Zillow for $120M. Now they're transforming a $1.3T market via co-ownership. Pacaso's already earned $110M+ in gross profit and reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

Asian shares slide as Russia-Ukraine conflict, OPEC+ output plan push oil prices higher

HONG KONG (AP) — Asian shares sank on Monday and oil prices jumped as trade tensions and the ratcheted up geopolitical uncertainty.

Nebius Group Stock Is Ripping Higher Monday: What's Going On?

Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares are rising Monday. The stock may be getting a boost after the company announced the expansion of its global AI infrastructure footprint with a U.K. deployment.

Why Billionaires Are Stockpiling This "Boring" Token - Ad

The world's largest financial institutions are building massive positions in a protocol most retail investors consider too "unsexy" to notice. As markets are volatile post-tariffs, this coin continues setting transaction records while flying almost completely under the radar.

Pride events face budget shortfalls as US corporations pull support ahead of summer festivities

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Many U.S. corporations this year stopped supporting Pride events that celebrate LGBTQ+ culture and rights, causing hundreds of thousands of dollars in budget shortfalls ahead of the summer festivities and raising questions about corporate America’s commitment to the cause.

Credit scores decline for millions as US student loan collections restart

NEW YORK (AP) — Millions of Americans are seeing their credit scores suffer now that the U.S. government has resumed referring for debt collection.

Altucher: Forget Bitcoin - This Will Be So Much Bigger - Ad

Bitcoin is surging - and Trump's new crypto policies are igniting what James Altucher calls "The Great Gain." With key states like New Hampshire creating crypto reserves, a massive altcoin rally could be next. A $900 stake today could explode.

e.l.f. Beauty Buys Hailey Bieber's Brand Rhode For $1 Billion: Now She's Richer Than Husband Justin Bieber

The massive $1 billion deal makes Hailey Bieber wealthier than her husband, Justin Bieber, and revives e.l.f.'s "positive momentum," according to analysts.

Anduril Raises $2.5 Billion At $30.5 Billion Valuation, Doubling In A Year As Defense Contracts Grow

Anduril Industries secures $2.5B in funding, led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, for its next-gen defense technologies amid rising global tensions.

Putting Your Name on This List Could Hand You $1,270 on Friday - Ad

URGENT: On Tuesday, a simple set of instructions will be sent out to an elite group of investors. The folks in this group will have the opportunity to place a 10-minute trade that could double their money by Friday. Consider this your invitation to join them. The next trade is just days away.

Elon Musk Launches XChat With Claimed Bitcoin-Style Encryption, But Expert Says It's Like Running A 'Rocket On Water'

Elon Musk announced the launch of the XChat messaging app with claimed Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) -style encryption, but cybersecurity experts are challenging the technical accuracy of the platform’s security assertions.

Tesla's Chinese Rival BYD Sued For $45 Million Over Alleged Human Trafficking, Slave-Like Conditions At Brazil Factory Site

Brazilian labor prosecutors filed a lawsuit Tuesday against BYD Co Ltd seeking $45 million in damages for alleged human trafficking and slavery-like working conditions at the Chinese automaker's factory construction site in Bahia state.

Elon Musk Confirms: Tesla's Optimus is Replacing Workers... and Heading to Mars - Ad

Elon Musk just confirmed Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, will head to Mars in 2026 aboard Starship to assist with autonomous colonization. Mass production starts in 2025, scaling to 500,000 robots yearly-what could become the decade's biggest AI wealth creation story.

Asian shares shoot higher as US stocks inch toward their records

Shares advanced Wednesday in Asia after U.S. stocks drifted closer to their records, while U.S. futures edged lower.

Senate Republicans revise ban on state AI regulations in bid to preserve controversial provision

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republicans have made changes to their party's sweeping tax bill in hopes of preserving a new policy that would prevent states from regulating artificial intelligence for a decade.

The Best $19 You've Ever Spent - Ad

Discover a conservative options strategy almost anyone can use. This new research service reveals how to trade the same stocks repeatedly to build steady income for retirement. Access it now for just $19-the lowest price ever offered, but only for a limited time.

Cloudflare Strengthening, Yet Breakout Unlikely Until 2026

Cloudflare Stock: Structure remains constructive, but a breakout may not unfold until March 2026.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright finstrategist.com
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service