Soundhound AI (SOUN) has been soaring lately with news of voice AI integration, but a recent Benzinga article on highlights the steep rise in short interest – a whopping 24% of all regular shares are shorted and this would take more than three days of normal trading volume to cover.
This means that SOUN is a target for a short squeeze. Why? Because short sellers will have to buy the stock to cover their positions, and this will push prices even higher. So, how might we position for upside here with the limited risk?
Why, the butterfly trade, of course!
Trade structure – the long call butterfly trade
The long call butterfly is a combination of a long call spread, and a short call spread where the short strikes are shared. Here's the trade:
- Buy to open 1 SOUN 17 Jan 8 calls
- Sell to open 2 SOUN 17 Jan 12 calls
- Buy to open 1 SOUN 17 Jan 15 calls
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The total cost of this spread is currently 0.46 at this writing and it is also the maximum risk in the position. There is one caveat here – the distance between the strikes will make this a winning trade even if the stock moves well above $15. Here's why:
In a standard long butterfly spread, the distance between the middles strikes and the outer strikes are the same. This means that if the stock moves dramatically higher when holding the long call butterfly, the entire position would be a loss if held into the expiration date.
This butterfly, however is different.
The spread between the 8 and 12 strikes is $4, while the spread between the 12 and 15 strikes is $3 – leaving an extra $1 to collect even if prices expand north.
The total potential profit if the price of the stock does not breach $12 would be calculated this way: $12-8 = $4 (distance between the strikes) minus how much we paid for it 0.46 = $3.54 less commissions.
Potentially 600%!
That said, if the prices stay steady, this option position will gradually erode to zero, so manage your risk according to that understanding.
Trade Management
SOUN's relative resistance zone is right around $7.80 (where it sits now) The relative support is near $4.20.
The strategy result provides only two choices to exit the trade:
- To sell the call butterfly when it is performing at your target parameters. I like the 200%-300% profit range.
- To sell the call butterfly when it hits the short strike or hits the loss threshold that is desirable for you. Again, I like the 50% stop here.
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