Trump's Greenland Gambit: Kalshi Bettors See 21% Chance He'll Seal The Deal Before This Date

Aniket Verma

January 06, 2025

Bettors on the federally authorized betting platform Kalshi predicted a 21% chance of Donald Trump buying Greenland, amid the President-elect’s controversial effort to acquire the autonomous Danish region.

What happened: A new betting contract titled “Will Trump buy Greenland?” went live on Dec. 21, with odds in favor of such an occurrence shooting to 21% as of this writing. The odds hit an all-time high of 23.5% on Jan. 5.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before Jan. 20, 2029, the contract stated. About $123,301 has been wagered on the bet at the time of writing.

A similar bet was live on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based prediction platform, Polymarket, with significantly lower 4% odds in favor. Over $177,000 has been put on the line for the bet.

Note that Polymarket is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory hurdles.

See Also: ‘Pharma Bro’ Martin Shkreli Predicts Liquidation Doom For MicroStrategy Amid Fall Below $300, Says Bitcoin Will Hit $250K Without Michael Saylor

Why It Matters: The betting market develops amid Trump's renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic territory.

Donald Trump Jr., Trump's eldest son, is expected to visit Greenland on Tuesday, according to a Reuters report.

Greenland is strategically important to the U.S. because it is located on the fastest route from North America to Europe and has considerable mineral deposits.

However, Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede has proclaimed, "We are not for sale," in response to Trump’s bid.

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