Another Gold High? Here's the Move Wall Street Is Missing ...

Gold just surged past $4,200, up 45% in a year - but Sean Brodrick says $6,900 could be next. History shows when gold booms, one hidden play has delivered far bigger gains - 21x, 49x, even 1,386x. The same strategy once handed 26,000% profits. And Sean says it's back on the table now.

Jobs report on eve of election will be among the most distorted in years

CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
October 30, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Four days before Election Day, the government will issue its final snapshot of hiring and unemployment in the United States after a presidential race in which voter perceptions of the economy have played a central role.

Yet Friday's report will include some of the most distorted monthly employment figures in years, with job growth having been held down temporarily in October by hurricanes and worker strikes.

So just as voters, politicians and Federal Reserve officials are looking for a clear read on the economy, they instead will get a muddied one. The report arrives as Republican allies of Donald Trump, seeking to cast doubt on the economy's health, have sought to undercut confidence in the credibility of the monthly jobs reports.

Trump and his supporters have repeatedly attacked the Biden-Harris administration for the spike in inflation that peaked two years ago before steadily cooling. Despite healthy job growth, few layoffs and low unemployment, Trump has also charged that the United States is a "failing nation" and has vowed that his plan to implement sweeping tariffs on all imported goods would restore millions of manufacturing jobs.

Typically, the monthly jobs data helps clarify how the economy is faring. But economists estimate that Hurricanes Helene and Milton, combined with the effects of the ongoing strike by Boeing machinists, will have reduced hiring last month by a significant number -- roughly 60,000 to 100,000 jobs, most of them only temporarily.

All told, economists have estimated that Friday's report will show that just 120,000 jobs were added in October, according to the data provider FactSet. That is a decent number, though less than half of September's unexpectedly robust 254,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a low 4.1%.

Once the impact of the hurricanes and strikes are considered, those figures would still point to a solid job market, one that has shown surprising durability, buoyed by healthy consumer spending, in the face of the Fed's high interest rates.

"This is a really incredibly resilient economy," said Jane Oates, a former Labor Department official during the Obama administration. "People are spending. That's what's keeping this economy going."

Yet there may be other effects that the government has a harder time measuring. The Labor Department, for example, has said it thinks the strike by Boeing machinists, along with a smaller walkout by some hotel workers, reduced job growth by 41,000 in October. But some of Boeing's suppliers may also have shed jobs as the strike cut into their sales. It's not clear how much of an impact those job losses might have had on the October employment figures.

At the same time, the hurricane might have cost fewer jobs than economists expect. A worker would have to lose pay for an entire pay period -- often two weeks -- for their job to be considered lost in the government's data. Though many workers in North Carolina were likely out of work that long, it's not clear that in Florida, which has had more experience with hurricanes, employees would have missed that much work, Oates said.

Economists at UBS noted that the big amusement parks in Orlando -- Walt Disney World, Sea World and Universal -- were closed only for two days after Hurricane Milton hit. And in some states, people will be hired as part of the cleanup and rebuilding efforts.

Friday's jobs report will be the last major snapshot of the economy before the Fed's next meeting Nov. 7, two days after the election. Most economists expect the Fed to reduce its benchmark rate by a quarter-point, after an outsize half-point cut in September.

If the jobs report suggests that hiring stayed healthy in October excluding the effects of the hurricanes and strike, Republican political figures may question its credibility again. Last month, when the government reported that hiring had jumped unexpectedly in September, Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, made the baseless charge that the report was "fake."

Yet no mainstream economists share such skepticism. Other indicators -- such as the number of people seeking unemployment benefits, data that is compiled mostly by the states -- also point to a still-solid job market.

"I've been horrified by the degree to which politicians have made that argument," said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the jobs report, "is the most transparent government agency on the planet," she said.

Trump and other critics have seized on the revisions that are often made to the government's initial estimates as evidence for their false claim that the Biden-Harris administration has manipulated the data. In August, the BLS said it expected to downgrade its estimate of total jobs in the United States as of last March by 818,000, or about 0.5% of the total. During the presidential debate in September, Trump asserted that the revision reflected "fraud" in the employment data. Yet under his own administration, the BLS revised job counts downward in 2019, by 514,000.

Erica Groshen, a senior economic adviser at Cornell University and a former commissioner of the BLS, explained that such revisions are "not a bug; they are a feature" of the government's data-gathering.

"BLS wants to get as much timely information out there as possible, but it also wants to have the information be as accurate as possible," Groshen said.

The way it does that is to release early data, based on surveys of tens of thousands of businesses. Revisions are subsequently made based on late-arriving data from more companies and from actual job counts derived from unemployment benefit agencies.

Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance, has often sought to undercut positive hiring data by arguing that all the jobs created in the past year have gone to immigrants.

That claim rests on the fact that the number of "foreign-born" people with jobs, as BLS refers to them, increased 1.2 million in September from a year earlier, while the number of native-born workers with jobs fell by about 800,000.

Yet the "foreign-born" category includes people who have been in the United States for years, including from childhood, and who are now citizens, as well as recent immigrants, both authorized and unauthorized.

More significantly, native-born Americans have been retiring in droves, one reason why so many employers have often had difficulty filling jobs. As the huge baby boom generation ages, the proportion of Americans ages 65 and older has jumped to 17.3%, up from just 13.1% in 2010, according to Census Bureau data.

And the unemployment rate for native-born Americans, at 3.8%, is actually lower than the jobless rate for foreign-born workers, at 4.2%.

Continue Reading...

Popular

Tanka Bets Its Memory-Native AI Platform Can Redefine How Startups Collaborate and Scale

Tanka, a U.S.-based AI collaboration platform headquatered in Bay Area, is betting on its home market with a bold premise — that the future of enterprise software will depend not on bigger models or flashier chatbots, but on memory. 

America's Defense Future Starts Underground - Ad

A N. American metals project just caught the attention of Rio Tinto - a mining giant. With four projects in key regions, this firm is aligned with Washington's push to rebuild the defense-metal supply chain.

IRS Direct File won't be available next year. Here's what that means for taxpayers

WASHINGTON (AP) — IRS Direct File, the electronic system for filing tax returns for free, will not be offered next year, the Trump administration has confirmed.

Boeing may face its first civil trial seeking damages for deadly Ethiopia crash

More than six years after a jetliner crashed in Ethiopia, the first civil trial stemming from the disaster that killed all 157 people on board appears poised to move forward.

Metals... Not Missles... Is the New Arms Race - Ad

China and Russia control 70% of the world's critical minerals, giving them leverage over the West. One N. American discovery could help shift that balance by developing the metals essential for defense systems.

Trump Withdraws Support For 'Wacky' Marjorie Taylor Greene In Sudden, Fiery Split: 'I Can't Take...'

President Donald Trump said he is withdrawing his endorsement of longtime ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — here's what happened.

Elon's New Device Could Launch Biggest IPO of the Decade - Ad

Elon Musk's new device is being called a "game-changer"-and even the White House is using this tech. Jeff Brown says it could launch Musk's next trillion-dollar company and make early investors rich. You can claim a stake now for as little as $500.

Wall Street Enters Its Strongest Month: These 7 Stocks Often Crush It

November is historically Wall Street's strongest month. These 7 stocks often delivered standout gains in recent decades.

Asian shares are mostly lower after US stocks stumble

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares were mostly lower in Asia on Monday while U.S. futures advanced after Wall Street’s lackluster finish to last week.

Elon's $25 Trillion Confession - Ad

Elon Musk: "Tesla will become a $25 trillion company." That would make Tesla 8x bigger than Apple today. How is that possible? He admits it's all thanks to this one AI breakthrough that will take AI out of our computer screens and manifest a 250x boom here in the real world.

Billionaire Cari Tuna on why the organization she started will offer free advice to other donors

For San Francisco-based Cari Tuna, the most important decision a philanthropist can make is deciding . Starting Tuesday, the organization she helped found will offer making those choices.

Investing Legend Hints the End May Be Near for These 3 Iconic Stocks - Ad

Futurist Eric Fry say Amazon, Tesla and Nvidia are all on the verge of major disruption. To help protect anyone with money invested in them, he's sharing three exciting stocks to replace them with. He gives away the names and tickers completely free in his brand-new "Sell This, Buy That" broadcast.

Buy Now Pay Later Can Torpedo Mortgage Chances

BNPL services like Affirm, Klarna, Afterpay, and PayPal Pay Later are popular but can hurt mortgage approval. Lenders scrutinize bank statements and debt-to-income ratio, and new credit models include BNPL data. Loan officers warn of multiple plans inflating DTI.

Jim Cramer: Chipotle Is 'Too Expensive,' Buy This Plane Maker

On "Mad Money," Cramer discusses Henry Schein, Bloom Energy, Tyler Technologies, Boeing and Chipotle Mexican Grill.

The AI "End Game" Begins... - Ad

A millionaire insider and tech visionary who recommended 24 different stocks that all went up as much as 1,000%... Now says "This could be your LAST CHANCE to capture the biggest potential AI profits." He recommended AMD at under $2 per share. Now it's $250 - as much as a 12,400% gain... But AI's "End Game" could be his most important work yet.

Bill Ackman's Hertz Stake Is Starting To Look Like His Next Chipotle Moment

Bill Ackman's investment in Hertz may be the next Chipotle moment as the rental-car company sees a surprise profit and a 40% stock surge.

"Tech Prophet" Who Predicted the iPhone Now Predicts... - Ad

George Gilder - who predicted the iPhone 17 years early and gave Reagan the first microchip - is making his boldest call yet. He says an American nanotech "super-convergence" could mint more millionaires than any event in recent memory. He's found 3 stocks set to benefit before November 18's bombshell.

TSLA, PLTR, IREN And More: 5 Stocks That Dominated Investor Buzz This Week

Retail investors talked up five hot stocks this week (Nov. 3–7) on X and Reddit's r/WallStreetBets: TSLA, PLTR, MSTR, AMD, IREN.

Trump's Hidden Fed Agenda - Ad

Trump's latest moves show he's preparing to reshape the Federal Reserve - and the value of the U.S. dollar. With key appointees already in place, the coming monetary reset could send gold soaring like it did in the 1970s, when it climbed 24X in under a decade.

Zohran Mamdani Was Crypto Bettors' Overwhelming Favorite For New York City Mayor At 100% Odds — And He Just Won

Zohran Mamdani won the high-stakes New York City mayoral race Tuesday,  a victory widely anticipated by cryptocurrency bettors, who had overwhelmingly backed the Democratic Socialist.

Court Blocks Trump's SNAP Reductions, But Stricter Eligibility Rules Begin

New work requirements for SNAP begin Saturday, but benefits may not be issued through November due to the government shutdown.

On November 18, a powerful new law signed by President Trump will trigger a radical shift in America's money system... - Ad

When a small group of private companies - not the Fed - will perform a major mint of a new kind of money. And those who act before this new system fully kicks in could see gains as high as 40X by 2032. But those who fail to prepare will be blindsided by this sea change to the U.S. dollar.

Japanese game maker Nintendo reports zooming sales and profit on its hit Switch 2 machine

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese video-game maker Nintendo’s net profit jumped 85% in April-September from the year before, as its sales more than doubled following the launch of its hit Switch 2 console in June, the company said Tuesday.

Another Gold High? Here's the Move Wall Street Is Missing ... - Ad

Gold just surged past $4,200, up 45% in a year - but Sean Brodrick says $6,900 could be next. History shows when gold booms, one hidden play has delivered far bigger gains - 21x, 49x, even 1,386x. The same strategy once handed 26,000% profits. And Sean says it's back on the table now.

Sarepta Shares Jump After FDA Approves Updated Elevidys Label

Sarepta Therapeutics shares jumped after the FDA issued a new boxed warning for Elevidys.

America's Defense Future Starts Underground - Ad

A N. American metals project just caught the attention of Rio Tinto - a mining giant. With four projects in key regions, this firm is aligned with Washington's push to rebuild the defense-metal supply chain.

What's Going On With Home Depot Shares Monday?

Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) shares are bouncing around Monday ahead of earnings later this week. Here's what you need to know.

Spotify Premium Subscribers Boost Q3 Revenue, Eyes Strong Holiday Quarter

Spotify (NYSE: SPOT) shares rose after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results, with revenue of $4.99B and 17M new MAUs.

Metals... Not Missles... Is the New Arms Race - Ad

China and Russia control 70% of the world's critical minerals, giving them leverage over the West. One N. American discovery could help shift that balance by developing the metals essential for defense systems.

Trump Touts 'Really Good Deal' With China As US Stock Futures Rally — Dow Up 91 Points While Gold, US Dollar Remain Flat

U.S. stock futures are surging on Sunday evening, following greater clarity and easing trade tensions between the United States and China over the weekend, following the summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last week.

Elon's New Device Could Launch Biggest IPO of the Decade - Ad

Elon Musk's new device is being called a "game-changer"-and even the White House is using this tech. Jeff Brown says it could launch Musk's next trillion-dollar company and make early investors rich. You can claim a stake now for as little as $500.

Deep in Trump country, coal miners with black lung say government is suffocating the 'working man'

OAK HILL, W.Va. (AP) — Lisa Emery loves to talk about her “boys.” With each word, the respiratory therapist’s face softens and shines with pride. But keep her talking, and it doesn’t take long for that passion to switch to hurt. She knows the names, ages, families and the intimate stories of each one’s scarred lungs. She worries about a whole community of West Virginia coal miners — including a growing number in their 30s and 40s — who come to her for help while getting sicker and sicker from what used to be considered an old-timer’s disease: black lung.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright finstrategist.com
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service